Weekly Health Tech Reads | 8/4/24

The "Pepsi Challenge" era for AI Scribe startups, Teladoc's BetterHelp craters, and more

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AI SCRIBES

AI Scribes entering the “Pepsi Challenge” phase

This was an interesting STAT article looking at how health systems are evaluating multiple AI Scribe startups at once, resulting in what one health system exec describes as the “Pepsi challenge” (i.e. a blind taste test) for startups in the AI Scribe market.

✍️ Going Deeper

The article, perhaps not surprisingly, suggests that as providers test the AI Scribe solutions against each other, providers seemingly find very little difference between them. Here’s a good quote from the article:

… that impact is fairly similar across competing scribes — a reality quickly laid bare by health systems’ bake offs, which often focus on survey-based measures of physician satisfaction, burnout scales, and time saved. At UPMC, the Pennsylvania-based health system where doctors tested out scribes from Nuance and Abridge in six-week pilots, “the feedback we got was almost indistinguishable,” said chief medical information officer Rob Bart.

It presents an interesting question about who the winners will be in this market. Assuming that quote accurately represents provider experiences with these tools, it is hard to imagine a scenario where this market doesn’t end in a race to the bottom on price. The article notes that in order to avoid that some AI Scribe companies are starting to shift towards a revenue cycle management-esqe pitch around capturing more appropriate codes to increase health system profits. This also seems like a logical move, as the article highlights, but one that feels a lot like the coding conversation we’ve just seen play out in the Medicare Advantage market

  • Also this week, this interview in HIStalk with Augmedix CEO Manny Krakaris was worth a read. Among other things, it highlights that the recent Commure / Augmedix merger was essentially orchestrated by HCA, which is a client of both.

Q2 EARNINGS

Teladoc’s BetterHelp business craters; Teladoc pulls guidance for 2024

Teladoc stock was down 17% on the week as Teladoc had to pull its 2024 guidance for BetterHelp segment and the overall business as well as a result. You can see the downward trend in BetterHelp membership in the upper right chart on the slide below — membership has dropped from 476k to 407k over the past year, a decline of 15%:

BetterHelp revenue was down 9% year-over-year, which missed management expectations of a 4% - 8% decline. This decline was attributed to pulling back on advertising spend in the quarter as customer acquisition costs had a double-digit increase in May from the first quarter. Teladoc is addressing this pressure in the business by 1. focusing on the insurance market and 2. prioritizing international growth. The opening question from an analyst was whether BetterHelp remains a strategic priority for Teladoc or whether they will seek to sell the business, and it sounds like all options are on the table. The commentary in Q&A around moving towards billing insurance was interesting — Teladoc noted that the primary reason why people who are aware of BetterHelp don’t purchase is because of affordability. It’s a high high out-of-pocket cost and people expect it to be covered by their insurance. It sounds like one of those healthcare truisms that have been questioned over the past few years in the D2C market rearing its head again. BetterHelp expects to have the technical ability to implement insurance contracts by the end of the year and then roll it out throughout 2025.

Other Q2 Earnings Sessions

In addition to Teladoc (covered above), here were some other notable healthcare earnings announcements from the week:

  • Alignment Healthcare’s stock remained flat this week despite beating expectations and increasing membership guidance for 2024. Alignment noted that MLR is trending higher because of supplemental benefit expenses. This is increasing medical spend by 0.5%, which is being offset by the added membership growth. Alignment continues to express confidence about its strategic position heading into 2025 in the MA market and its’s hard to argue with it.

  • Cigna continues to make the affordability of the coming wave of pharmaceutical innovation a central part of its thesis — highlighting that the median annual price for a new drug coming to market was $300,000, up 35% from 2022. While GLP-1s are the #1 pharmacy trend driver today, there are over 1,000 gene therapy and cell therapies in the pipeline coming to market. Cigna noted that Express Scripts held the price of new drugs flat in 2023 as it defended the role of the PBM in the market. Interestingly, an analyst asked Cigna about its perspective on the ICHRA market and whether it is an opportunity — Cigna described it as a “niche market”, but one they’re keeping an eye on should it grow into anything material. Not quite the bullish perspective on ICHRA we’ve seen from some other insurers.

  • Humana shares slumped 7% on the week despite beating revenue expectations on higher-than-expected Medicare Advantage membership growth. Humana’s new CEO shared a letter with investors, suggesting that Humana is “not realizing the full promise of the company,” partly due to the external pressures MA has been facing recently. But there was also an interesting commentary that analysts picked up on in Q&A about the challenges of multiyear planning in the Medicare Advantage market — essentially with Humana’s CEO seemingly saying it’s hard to plan further than one year in advance given the annual planning cycle. This seems like a concern if true, given the multiyear margin recovery process insurers are on. During the earnings call, Humana mentioned that while the MA business is performing well, it is seeing higher inpatient costs due to the two-midnight rule. On the bright side, Humana doesn’t appear to be seeing the same pressure in Medicaid as others as it baked in different assumptions about the acuity of the population after redeterminations.

Other Key Headlines

  • 23andMe’s Board quickly rejected CEO Anne Wojcicki’s take-private proposal this week, noting its disappointment with some terms of the proposed deal while giving Wojcicki a small window to submit a revised proposal. The letter hints at the challenges in operating the business amid all this, as the Board is hiring a consultant to develop a new business plan for 23andMe focused on achieving profitability. The Board expects Wojcicki to support this work, while also asking that she withdraw her intent to block any alternative transactions as they seek alternatives to maximize shareholder value.

  • UnitedHealthcare and HCA are in a rate dispute, according to this STAT report. If the two sides don’t reach an agreement before September 1st, some HCA facilities will go out-of-network for UHC members. The article does a nice job of highlighting the typical back and forth here — UHC is saying HCA is seeking rate increases of up to 30%, while HCA is saying UHC is proposing below-market rates. The truth, as always, seems like it is somewhere in between, but it highlights how each party is attempting to use its negotiating leverage.

  • Forbes reports that CVS and Oak Street Health will be rolling out co-located clinics, building on a pilot of the effort in Houston. CVS expects to have 25 Oak Street clinics located next to a CVS pharmacy before the end of 2024, starting with three Chicago locations. New York, Dallas, and Columbus will also have co-located clinics. Oak Street will also open 25 additional stand-alone clinics before the end of the year.

  • This was an interesting Slate article discussing VC-backed care delivery startups focused on the LGBTQ+ population (Folx, Plume, and Carrot were discussed) and some of the challenges these models have in achieving the level of transformation that they seek to drive in the industry.

  • R1 RCM is being taken private by two private equity firms, CD&R and TowerBrook, for $8.9 billion.

  • CMS finalized a 2.9% increase in inpatient rates for 2025. This Healthcare Dive report provides a helpful summary of the changes and why the AHA is still perturbed by the increase, suggesting that it’ll hurt hospital margins.

Funding Announcements

  • Flo, an ovulation and period tracking app, raised $200 million from General Atlantic, valuing it at over $1 billion. Flo shared that it has 5 million paying subscribers and expects to hit $200 million in gross bookings in 2024.

  • Endpoints News reported that Devoted Health, a Medicare Advantage payvidor model, raised $112 million at a $13 billion post-money valuation.

  • Mental health provider Spring Health raised $100 million at a $3.3 billion valuation. Spring shared it covers 10 million lives via direct contracts with 450 employer groups and another 27,000 groups that can access Spring via a channel partner.

    • Kinnevik, an investor in Spring, shared an update noting that Spring is preparing to become a public company after having grown run-rate revenue 15x since 2021.

  • WellBe Senior Medical, an in-home primary care model for seniors, raised an undisclosed amount from Intermountain Ventures and Excellus BlueCross BlueShield (a Blues plan in upstate New York). WellBe serves 135k patients today across 8 states and expects to hit 160k patients by year end. WellBe and Excellus launched a partnership in March where Excellus is providing care to 30,000 Excellus MA members.

Reads from the Community

Food for Thought: The Untapped Potential of Benefit Programs by Emily Queen
This is a great read looking at the opportunity to build a startup to facilitate online shopping for the WIC program (Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children). It highlights the complexity that got this effort stuck in the mud — it stuck out to me that they reached out to all 50 state agencies, heard back from 15, and most wanted to be “fast followers” versus “trail blazers”. Read more.

The future of Health and PharmaTech: SignalFire’s perspective by Yuanling Yuan and Sooah Cho
A perspective from early-stage investors at SignalFire on key trends in healthcare, including investment opportunities they see across healthcare data, pharmatech, labor shortages, an aging population, and GLP-1s. Read more.

Re-engaging Hospitalists, Rebuilding Care Teams, and Improving Length of Stay by Bonnie Proulx and Jill Annala-Rogers
This Kaufman Hall article discusses how, after COVID-19, hospitals struggled with communication pathways for team members, leading to increased length of stay. Kaufman Hall is working with health systems to reduce length of stay by “getting back to the basics” and reprioritizing the hospitalist's role at the head of care teams. Read more.

Customer Success Associate at Bold, a digital fitness platform for seniors. Learn more.

Senior Software Engineer (Full-Stack) at Nourish, a telenutrition platform. Learn more.

People Business Partner (Clinical Ops) at Pair Team, a care coordination platform for Medicaid. Learn more.

Data Engineer at Pair Team, a care coordination platform for Medicaid. Learn more.

Director, Value Delivery (Benefit Support) at firsthand, a peer support model for serious mental illness. Learn more.

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