Weekly Health Tech Reads 4/13/25

Discussing the 2026 MA rate announcement, Commonwealth Care Alliance acquisition, MSSP contracting dynamics, and more

šŸ‘‹ Hi! Kevin here. Welcome to this edition of my free weekly newsletter, where I discuss the key healthcare innovation news and analysis from the week. It was a busy news week between the 2026 MA rate announcement, discussions of MSSP contracting, Commonwealth Care Allianceā€™s sale, a ruling about nursing home staffing ratios, and lots more.

If you enjoy the musings in this free weekly newsletter, you should join the Health Tech Nerds Community, the Slack community for folks who want to further understand and discuss the nuance of topics like these. Itā€™s a great forum to talk shop and meet others who like to nerd out about all the complicated nuances of the healthcare industry.

MEDICARE ADVANTAGE

CMSā€™s 5% MA rate increase for 2026 causes insurance (and VBC enabler) stocks to jump

On Monday, CMS released its 2026 Medicare Advantage rate announcement, which saw a meaningful jump in rate increases as outlined in the CMS chart below:

The 9% Effective Growth Rate and 5% expected overall revenue increase provided welcome news for Medicare Advantage plans across the country, as they were meaningfully higher than the numbers from the 2026 Advance Notice. Compare this to the 2026 Advance Notice chart, which indicated a 4.3% expected revenue increase, not a 2.23% increase as highlighted above. The difference was that the Advance Notice had an additional line item in it, as it included a 2.1% MA risk score trend number in the calculation (which was also in both the 2025 Advance Notice and Rate Announcement). Safe to say, the current calculation is a meaningful revenue increase for payors in 2026.

Wall Street reacted quickly to the news, as almost every public Medicare Advantage insurance company saw a 10%+ stock price increase on Tuesday after the rates were announced Monday afternoon. Cloverā€™s CEO Andrew Toy took to LinkedIn to note that the announcement ā€œis reassuring, but not game changingā€ as the announcement helps alleviate short term pressure on the industry but doesnā€™t change the long term changes that need to happen.

More interesting to me, though, was the massive jump that VBC enabler agilon health saw on the news. Itā€™s stock price was up 45% on the week, a huge jump that makes the insurance companies bump look small in comparison:

Source: Google Finance

agilon presumably is seeing that bump as a derivative of the health plan bump ā€” given its historical model is to negotiate global cap contracts with payors to manage medical spend on behalf of PCPs, this rate increase to payors presumably creates more room for agilon to generate profit margin for itself in managing medical spend. I would assume that agilonā€™s jump is indicative of how many global cap VBC startups were feeling this week. This is the first good news in some time for a market that has faced immense pressure over the past few years now between v28 and the general medical cost trend challenges in the market.

All that to say, Iā€™d imagine a lot of companies (and investors) in the VBC startup ecosystem were breathing a sigh of relief after this news came out. Itā€™ll be interesting to keep an eye on this over the coming months and how enduring this bump is.

M&A

Commonwealth Care Alliance sells to CareSource; underscoring the challenges of scaling

CareSource has acquired Commonwealth Care Alliance and will infuse up to $400 million into CCA in order to bring its cash reserves up to required levels. Massachusetts had previously paused all enrollment for CCA in November 2024, after its cash reserves were $217 million short in August 2024. CCA had separately announced in October 2024 that it was only offering FIDE-SNP and MMP plans in Massachusetts for 2025, while exiting MA offerings in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Rhode Island.

It appears there were not many willing buyers for CCA, and the state had to step in to put in place terms that would mitigate some of the risk for any acquirer including limiting potential losses for the next two years as part of the transaction, according to the Boston Globe report.

Itā€™s an unfortunate outcome for an organization that has done so much good caring for dual eligible populations in Massachusetts over the past twenty, serving as a model that many sought to emulate nationally. It has struggled in recent years as it attempted to expand its model beyond Massachusetts, acquiring two health plans in 2021 to expand into California and Michigan, while also entering the Rhode Island market. This quote from a local news source in Boston seems to have summed up the situation well:

CCA insures about 46,000 disabled and low-income people in Massachusetts, Walsh said, and it also functions as a service provider for some of the people it serves. Its financial picture is in bad shape after the company expanded its model from Massachusetts into four other states ā€œwhere they lost their shirt,ā€ the secretary [Kate Walsh, the Massachusetts Health and Human Services Secretary] said.

Going back to 2021, it appears that the decision to expand was part of an effort to diversify the business and scale its impact in providing healthcare for complex populations. This Boston Globe reporting from March does a great job discussing the history of CCA and how its care model that worked so well in Massachusetts began to falter as it grew to 100,000 lives in 2022. Operating losses ballooned from $14.3 million in 2022 to $105.8 million in 2023.

In many ways, the story reminds me of the Medical Home Network story from a few months ago, when MHN announced it received an investment from Oak HC/FT and converted from a not-for-profit to for-profit model. Both the MHN and CCA transactions have similar themes: a well established not-for-profit in a local market has ambitions to scale to achieve a much larger impact, but instead struggles to manage profitability as it scales before eventually requiring a transaction to recapitalize the business.

I think thereā€™s a lot to ponder here about how the scalability of these types of models and why this dynamic seems to play out repeatedly as organizations attempt to scale rapidly. Are these cases of bad market timing that are unique to these organizations and the MA market hype that happened over the last decade, or indicative of a law of gravity in healthcare that makes it hard to scale these sorts of companies nationally? As with most things, I think it is probably a bit of both.

MSSP

Milliman analyzes various MSSP performance levers for ACOs

This was a great case study from a team at Milliman looking at the various contractual levers that ACOs can pull in the the MSSP program and how much those levers can drive changes in performance. The case study presents a sample ACO and walks through how the beneficiary assignment methodology (prospective vs retrospective), the decision aroudn whether to renew the contract early, and the different shared savings tracks (B versus E considered here).

The chart below highlights a simulation of 50,000 outcomes for an ACO with ~40,000 members across three potential agreement types. As the chart indicates, the decision across these levers can drive swings in financial performance of upwards of $10 million a year for an ACO.

As I mentioned in the HTN Slack this week, I think this analysis provides a fascinating lens into life as an ACO. If Iā€™m running an ACO, optimizing these types of decisions seems like one of the most important parts of my job.

At the same time, when I step back from the specifics of the report and think about the broader context, I think in many ways this highlights the challenge at hand for broader VBC adoption ā€” both in terms of the complexity of the exercise and the magnitude of the financial swings driven by factors that have nothing to do with providing high quality patient care.

I can see why PCPs may not elect to participate in programs like MSSP given the complexity and uncertainty. Itā€™s also pretty clear why PCP enablement models play such a large role in programs like MSSP. It all can feel pretty far removed from the VBC ideal of providing improved quality at lower costs when so much of an ACOs performance rides on discussions of assignment methodology and early renewals and the like.

Quote of The Week

Dr. Ozā€™s first all-staff meeting as CMS Administrator on this week appears to have been a bit contentious as this Wired article reports. The focus on AI use at the agency, supporting MAHA, and focusing on addressing obesity does not seem to have been well-received by CMS staff, as highlighted by this quote below:

ā

ā€œIā€™m not sure he knows what we do here,ā€ said one CMS employee who listened to the call. ā€œHe was talking about nutrition and exercise. Thatā€™s not what Medicare does. We care for people in nursing homes. We deal with dying people.ā€

That quote will stick with me for a while as I think about what Medicare ā€œdoesā€ ā€” certainly it needs to care for people in nursing homes, yet I donā€™t see why itā€™s a bad thing to be talking about nutrition and exercise. In his vision for CMS, Dr. Oz noted he aims to shift the paradigm from sick care to a system focused on prevention, an idea that has been discussed as a needed change for so long. As we collectively talk about the many problems facing healthcare in terms of high costs and poor outcomes, focusing conceptually more on prevention and wellness topics like nutrition and exercise seems like it has to be part of the solution here.

Other Noteworthy Headlines

  • A federal judge in Texas ruled this week that CMS does not have the authority to implement 24/7 nurse staffing requirements at nursing homes because Congress has already defined a nurse staffing requirement at 8 hours a day. Axios provided a good summary of the ruling and its implications. The ruling itself doesnā€™t focus much on what the right staffing ratio standard is for nursing homes, as the judge appears to think the CMS change is a good idea. Instead the decision focuses on the question of whether CMS has the statutory authority to amend Congressā€™s definition, and the judge finds CMS does not. If youā€™re interested in the history of nursing home legislation, the court case provides a nice summary of how legislation has changed over time.

  • CMS told state officials this week that it will not extend or approve new applications for Designated State Health Programs (DSHPs) via Section 1115 Demonstrations for Medicaid enrollees, although existing 1115 programs may continue. The CMS letter to states notes that it believes that states were using this tool as a mechanism to receive more federal funding rather than implementing appropriate section 1115 demonstrations as intended, calling out a few state programs in particular. If youā€™re interested in going deeper on this topic, this LinkedIn post from Morgan Craven at ATI Advisory is helpful, along with this presentation providing an overview of these programs.

  • Weight Watchers appears to be heading for bankruptcy, according to this WSJ report. It is still attempting to restructure its debt outside of a Chapter 11 process. Regardless of how the debt restructuring happens, its a reminder of the challenges the business faces in this world of GLP-1s.

  • Farm bureau health plans appear to be gaining traction as five states are debating whether to allow farm bureaus to offer individual and small-group plans that donā€™t comply with ACA guidelines. If youā€™re at all interested in the complexity of driving change in the insurance market, I think this topic provides for a really good case study. The arguments are familiar on both sides of the equation ā€” farm bureau plans are cheaper because they arenā€™t mandated to cover as many benefits and they attract healthier populations. On the other hand, not being subject to ACA regulations makes it significantly easier to deny care for people who need it, leading to stories like this one of patients who are surprised that their care isnā€™t covered. Insurance companies worry that creating a market like this will negatively impact the risk selection on the ACA exchanges, which feels reminiscent of the death spiral conversations that were so prevalent in ACA discussions around 2016 / 2017. As the topic of splitting insurance markets appears to be coming up more often as politicians grapple with the costs of insurance coverage, itā€™ll be worth keeping an eye on this dynamic.

  • The New York Times picked up on the shenanigans happening in the skin substitute market, where Medicare spending has skyrocketed over the past five years, with some providers reporting upwards of 400% increases in annual costs and some patients receiving millions of dollars of skin substitutes. Similar to the farm bureau conversation above, this topic makes for a good case study in terms of how to set policy for a care delivery market that appears to be the wild west, like this one. There are again with familiar arguments on both sides: you have skin substitute proponents arguing that curtailing this market will harm patients and curb innovation. On the other hand, this pretty clearly seems like wasteful spending in some instances and outright fraud in other instances, which may also be resulting in harming patients.

  • Walgreens reported its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings this week. While there was no earnings call because it is in the process of being taken private, the earnings release noted that VillageMD sales declined by 6.2% in the period and that Walgreens had to take yet another goodwill impairment charge on VillageMD. In this quarter the goodwill impairment charge was $3 billion, compared to a $12.4 billion goodwill impairment charge in fiscal Q2 2024.

  • SCAN and Sutter Health are collaborating to launch new joint Medicare Advantage products in Northern California starting in 2026, with plans to create a JV health plan in the near future. This Fierce Healthcare reporting notes that the intent is to create more tailored MA plans specific to individual needs.

  • Longevity clinics are becoming a status symbol that can carry price tags of $100,000+ a year, as highlighted in the WSJ this week. This longevity movement appears to be hitting peak hype cycle type given the status it carries currently. Iā€™ll be interested to watch how the hype cycle journey evolves over the coming years ā€” clearly thereā€™s a market for $250,000 a year clinics in large markets like NYC for the ultra wealthy seeking the fountain of youth, but I donā€™t necessarily see that translating into huge venture exits personally.

  • The state of Tennessee is partnering with Carrum Health as a Center of Excellence (COE) model for Tennessee state employees. Carrum now has over 1 million public sector lives, and I imagine the next few years weā€™ll be seeing a lot of activity in the COE market as employers grapple with navigating access / cost tradeoffs for employees.

  • Transcarent and Accolade completed their merger.

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Social Post of the Week

Picking up again on the topic of MSSP, this LinkedIn post from Aledadeā€™s Travis Broome included a fascinating chart highlighting how the ratio of beneficiaries per PCP in MSSP has dramatically declined over the last decade. The study that Broome cites in the post also provides some helpful insights into the structure of ACOs.

Other Worthwhile Reads

Analysis of CMMI Model Costs, Quality Performance, and Transparency by Avalere Health
This report from Avalere is a good deep dive on the impact of CMMI, analyizing eighteen models of the models that CMMI implemented in order to better understand the impact of these models. Read more

Strategies for Sustaining Emergency Care in the United States by multiple authors
This report by RAND assesses the value of emergency care and provides policy suggestions to ensure that emergency departments receive appropriate funding. Read more

Chairman and CEO Letter to Shareholders by Jamie Dimon
The JPMorganChase CEOā€™s comments to shareholders included a section of thoughts on how to transform American healthcare, arguing for a few policy changes ā€” more transparency and a broader range of insurance options for people to buy. It doesnā€™t go too in-depth into anything, but it seems worth paying attention to how someone like Dimon frames the needs. Read more

ā€˜I wish we could be more optimisticā€™: A look at AI implementation at an Arizona FQHC by Emma Beavins
A great practical example of the challenges a small rural FQHC faces when attempting to implement AI. Clinics that have internet access issues daily, EHR migrations and funding issues that all make it harder. Given the push from CMS for using AI, including in rural settings, Iā€™ll be curious the types of support provided for practices like this one. Read more

Q1 2025 market overview: Ready, set, leap by Mihir Somaiya, Sari Kaganoff, and Clara Sun
The Rock Health crew released their report on Q1 2025 fundraising activity, which saw 122 deals completed and $3 billion of capital raised. Activity was centered around a high volume of small early stage deals and a handful of large late stage deals. The analysis provides a view of ā€œleapfroggingā€ strategies as startups look to get ahead in the market today. Read more

Medicare Advantage market growth slows amid intensified headwinds by Chartis
I missed Chartisā€™ excellent review of Medicare Advantage enrollment while out on spring break a few weeks ago, but am including here in case you havenā€™t seen it yet. Itā€™s generally the best summary of MA enrollment trends each year, and this year is no different. Read more

Startup Funding Announcements

  • Bliss Aesthetics, a platform that matches patients with cosmetic surgeons, raised $17.5 million.

  • Thoughtful.ai, an AI platform for revenue cycle management, raised growth funding from New Mountain Capital.

  • Cofertility, an egg donor platform, raised $7.25 million.

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